Long-Range U.S. Drought Forecast

(16 Mar 03)

By John L. Daly

Following from his stunning success in predicting the timing of the current El Niño over 4 years ago, Dr Theodor Landscheidt has now applied his solar analysis technique to the problem of periodic drought conditions in the U.S. He has developed a long-range forecast covering the period up to 2030.

He predicts that the next extended wet period should begin around 2007 and last about 7 to 8 years. A drought peak is to be expected from 2025 onwards and should last about five years.

There are many Australian farmers who must now wish they had heeded his prediction, made in January 1999, that an El Niño would strike in late 2002, calling it nearly 4 years ahead of time when the best advance warning the major climatic institutions could manage was only a few months.

Dr Landscheidt's new paper is here:

Long-Range Forecast of U.S. Drought Based on Solar Activity

http://www.john-daly.com/solar/US-drought.htm

by Dr Theodor Landscheidt

Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity
Klammerfelsweg 5, 93449 Waldmuenchen, Germany
[email protected]

What John L. Daly says of Australian farmers is of course true of North American farmers, whose livelihood is affected just as extensively by the cyclical variations in solar activity.

Dr. Theodor Landscheidt is a prominent scientist involved in studying the cyclical nature of solar activity and its impact on climate trends. As such he contributed a large amount of very precise information useful for the debunking of the man-made-global-warming hype promoted by climate alarmists. Not too surprisingly, the hard and cold scientific facts provided by Dr. Landscheidt and his collaborators are being ignored by the climate alarmists whose very financial well-being is being threatened by anything that debunks the myth that global warming is man-made.

Yet, the strong correlation between the cycles of solar variation and specific cycles of regional weather manifestations, as Dr. Landscheidt demonstrated, can be proven not only by relating solar variations to specific large-scale weather events in the past, such as the occurrence of floods in the River Po drainage basin, the end of the Sahelian drought in Africa and the big El Niño event of 2002-2003, it was used to predict with astounding accuracy - years in advance - when those three events were to occur and when others like them will happen.

In the report identified above, Dr. Landscheidt focuses his attention on the correlation of the measured cycle of solar activity with North American measured variations in the extent of drought conditions since 1900 (as per the Palmer Drought Index). Dr. Landscheidt predicts that general drought conditions will prevail until 2007, when the cycle of drought conditions caused by the variations in the cycle of solar flux will revert to a period of a few years of wet weather.

It is doubtful that Dr. Landscheidt's prediction will find many adherents. Instead, when his predictions are born out by reality, that reality will be used to "prove" that all of the efforts and trillions of dollars spent world-wide in curbing the effects of man-made global warming will have had the result of bringing an end to the drought conditions in whose grip we presently find ourselves.

It is fairly safe to assume that, driven to blind obedience by their climate-alarmist handlers, the governments who are signatories to the Kyoto Accord will continue to ignore all evidence to the contrary of their belief in the ideology of man-made global warming. It appears that they have got their minds firmly made up and that absolutely no facts will confuse them, not even when those facts are presented by Dr. Theodor Landscheidt who has a flawless record of making accurate long-term predictions of specific instances of fluctuations in climate events, predictions with an accuracy completely unmatched by any simulations produced by means of the general circulation models (GCMs) that the climate alarmists have become so very fond of.

Nevertheless, the GCMs suffer from a malady that affected especially large-scale computing models since the advent of computers and gained a degree of infamy under the acronym GIGO (garbage in, garbage out). Not too surprisingly, the results of GCM simulations attempting to verify what the climate was in the past and will be in the future suffer from glaring inaccuracies due to them not taking into account entirely predictable fluctuations in solar activity and their impact on climate trends.

Nevertheless, we should count ourselves lucky, in spite of being made to pay through the nose, ostensibly to fight the "man-made" global warming announced by some of the same government-funded climate alarmists who announced with great gusto in the 1970's that we would all begin to perish by about 1985 from the man-made ice age that they claimed was then in the making. The Kyoto accord will affect how much money we can keep to ourselves after we gave to Caesar, it will not in the least affect the weather. Kyoto accord or not, as far as the climate goes, global warming will remain as absent during the next few decades as it has generally done for the last century.

The calculations done by General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the main source of the information that fuels the global warming hysteria. Nevertheless, not one of them comes acceptably close to accurately calculating what the climate presently is at any location, let alone of the whole Earth. Not only that, but all of the GCMs differ widely from one another as to what the climate was in the past, and as to what it is supposed to be in the future.

Therein lies the problem. No one in his right mind will base any decisions about the future on tools that cannot determine with acceptable accuracy what the present is and the past was.

Reality check: UAH (University of Alabama in Huntsville) monthly globally averaged lower atmospheric temperature variations since 1979 as measured by NOAA and NASA satellites.

Weather and climate depend on the sun and not on the false predictions made by GCMs that as of now don't even remotely simulate with an acceptable degree of accuracy what the climate trends were, let alone forecast them.

In the meantime we would be well advised to put our money – what little is left of it after the government is through paying for the folly of the Kyoto accord – on Dr. Landscheidt and other people like him whose research and predictions shine with stunning accuracy and not on account of misguided, taxpayer-funded government largesse.

We can't change the climate or the weather, but we can control to some extent how much money is being vacuumed out of our pockets, by voting out of office all politicians who either promote the Kyoto Accord or fail to oppose it. Besides thus addressing the pressing problem of ever escalating taxation, we will thereby also solve quite a few more social ills caused by escalating government control in many other areas of our lives.

______________________