Global Warming Explained
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...[T]wo scientists from the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial
Physics of the Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences
challenge the politically-correct global warming dogma that vexes the
entire world. Bashkirtsev and Mashnich (2003) say that "a number of
publications report that the anthropogenic impact on the Earth's
climate is an obvious and proven fact," when in actuality, in their
opinion, "none of the investigations dealing with the anthropogenic
impact on climate convincingly argues for such an impact."....
In light of these several sets of real-world observations, we
would not be at all surprised to find that Bashkirtsev and Mashnich
will indeed be proven correct in their prediction of imminent, if not
already-in-progress, global cooling.
Right Questions About Climate Change & the Kyoto Protocol
By Ross McKitrick, Associate Professor of Economics in the department of Economics at the
University of Guelph (Feb 2002)
Ross McKitrick specializes in the study of the impact of environmental trends
on the economy (he identified that the real income of the average Canadian household
will be reduced by 5.5% or $2,700 per year if the Kyoto accord is adopted by Canadian
Parliament as ordered by Jean Chretien). In this paper he asks, among other
things, whether the Kyoto Protocol will solve the problem of global warming.
If the reader is still convinced that IRAGs
[infra-red- absorptive gases] are warming the climate and that this is a bad thing, this
still does not provide support for the Kyoto Protocol. If we suppose that the
Protocol is fully implemented, the effects on the climate are negligible. Wigley (1998)
presents forecasts based on three Kyoto scenarios. Under the basic implementation
scenario, with universal compliance, no defections and no leakage effects (transfers of
emitting activity into non-compliance zones), a doubling of the concentration of CO2 in
the atmosphere is only delayed by about 5 years. Globally-averaged temperatures in
2100 are only 0.08 °C below the baseline (2.5 °C) increase. With Kyoto plus 100 years of
ever-tightening constraints on carbon dioxide emissions, temperatures are only about 0.3
°C below baseline. If a 2.5 °C warming is a problem, so is 2.2 or 2.4 degrees.
Furthermore, the compromises worked out at Bonn and Marrakech, which among other things,
give Russia the right to practically unlimited credits for CO2 sinks in its forests, make
Kyoto pretty much useless.
See also: Ross McKitrick,
Global Warming: Competing Views
[The museum provides information on historical, archeological and
paleontological climate variations.]
The calculations done by General Circulation Models (GCMs) are
the main source of the information that fuels the global warming hysteria.
Nevertheless, not one of them comes acceptably close to accurately calculating
what the climate presently is at any location, let alone of the whole Earth.
Not only that, but all of the GCMs differ widely from one another as to what the
climate was in the past, and as to what it is supposed to be in the future.
Therein lies the problem. No one in his right mind will base any decisions
about the future on tools that cannot determine with acceptable accuracy what
the present is and the past was.
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Posted 2002 09 26 (page broken up into several pages)
2002 11 26 (added reference to Ross McKitrick's views)